Friday’s NCAA Tournament schedule brings 16 more Round of 64 games and draws perhaps the most exciting 36-hour stretch in sports to a close.
Three No. 1 seeds, including the defending national champion and title favorite UConn Huskies, are on the docket on Day 2 of March Madness, but our attention is elsewhere with a pair of best bets in two games with tight spreads.
[ March Madness 2024: News & Analysis | Schedule | Bracket ]
(.)
No. 11 New Mexico Lobos vs. No. 6 Clemson Tigers
Game Info: 3:10 p.m. ET | truTV
Spread: New Mexico -2.5 (-102) | Clemson +2.5 (-120)
Moneyline: UNM (-128) | CLEM (+106)
Total: 151.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-100)
The Lobos are back in the bracket for the first time since 2014 after winning the Mountain West conference tournament. Though not a Power 6 league, the MWC sent six of its 11 schools to the Big Dance and New Mexico beat three of them — Boise State, Colorado State and San Diego State — en route to its title. The Tigers return to the field after a two-year absence, but unlike the Lobos, who beat the best their conference had to offer in the buildup to the Big Dance, Clemson lost to two of the worst teams in the ACC — Notre Dame and Boston College — since the start of March.
New Mexico’s profile is not that of a typical No. 11 seed. The Lobos (26–9) are ranked 22nd in KenPom and NET, sandwiched between teams that earned No. 4 and 5 seeds. There’s great basketball lineage all over this roster: coach Richard Pitino, son of Rick Pitino; Jaelen House, whose father is Eddie House; Jamal Mashburn Jr., named for his NBA All-Star father; and JT Toppin, brother of Knicks player and former Dayton standout Obi Toppin. Though House (16.1 ppg) and Mashburn (14.4 ppg) both shoot below 40% from the field, New Mexico is still a scary offensive team.
The Lobos average 81.5 points per game, create second chances with offensive rebounds and do not commit many turnovers. On the other side of the ball, they allow just over 70 points per game, boast a plus-11.2 scoring margin and rank top 20 in blocks (5.5) and steals (8.8) per game.
The Tigers (21–11) have a stronger offensive profile than their first-round foe. Though they operate at a significantly slower pace, they still average 77.4 points per game, hit free throws at a near-80% clip and have one of the best three-point threats in the country in Joseph Girard III (42.5%). Center PJ Hall (18.8 ppg) and Girard (15.7 ppg) are Clemson’s top two scorers. The Tigers don’t create much chaos on defense as they average 4.5 steals and 3.9 blocks, though they hold opponents to 71.3 points per game.
New Mexico (23–11 against the spread) has been one of the best teams to bet on all year while the Tigers (17–14–1) have been slightly above average. Look a little deeper and the Lobos (19–7) have been up to the task when they’re favored and Clemson (6–1) has a sterling record as an underdog.
That doesn’t bode well for New Mexico, the betting favorite despite being the lower seed, but its play outside of Albuquerque is encouraging. The Lobos are 8–0 in neutral site games this season and 5–6 on the road. They just rattled off four straight wins in Las Vegas to punch their ticket to the tourney while the Tigers (6–6 on the road, 3–1 at neutral sites) have lost their last four outside of Clemson. Defense travels and New Mexico has the edge on that side of the ball.
Bet: New Mexico -2.5 (-102)